This morning on The Chris Evans Breakfast Show at 8.20am there was no interview. In fact, I listened in bed until 8.35am and still no interview. So my theory that he interviews a different person everyday at 8.20am has failed 😉
Instead he gave a monologue about his thinking around social distancing. It was interesting, but quite hard to follow (especially as I was just waking up!). But I have found it online and just re-listened to it again and typed it out. It’s pretty long – but I wanted to share it here:
Here’s what happened last night, in the middle of the night and early this morning. OK, so my half my brain cell in my head. I couldn’t sleep last night. As early as I would otherwise like to, due to a report I saw on Sky News, half an hour, before my usual lights out self-imposed mid-week curfew at approximately half eight, because we have to get up at silly o’clock, for the show that we love to do.
Now the report was about social distancing.
Here we go. Take a deep breath. Just follow me along on for this one.
It was about social distancing and the difference of the distance of two metres separating between people in public and at work has in reducing the risk of infection from Covid-19, compared to the distance of one metre.
I find this particularly interesting, because it is like breaking news in this field.
After gathering the most recent data available from 16 of the most effective nations in the world including the UK. A group of infinitely more intelligent people that me and maybe you. But that’s for me to say. Has deduced that a distance of two metres reduces the risk of becoming infected by the particles issued from another human being to 1.3% from a starting line of 100%.
Whereas if you half that distance to one metre, the risk goes up to 2.3%.
And so here’s why I think with my half a brain cell, a lot of people are having an issue with this. Is it because on the face of it, at a glance, 1.3 sounds and looks like it is approximately half of 2.3, in which case it might be interrupted that doubling the distance from 1 metre to 2 metres halves the risks, from in fact it doesn’t. Because in reality the reduction in risks is therefore fractional not multiple, down from 98.7% to 97.7%. In other words from extremely low to, well, almost extremely low.
Whereas the potential, chaos. The increase social distancing has on society is an extremely disproportionate negative and potentially devastating multiple. As opposed to a fraction.
For example, if you have to keep a distance of one metre from another person on all sides, i.e. a metre in front, a metre behind and a metre either side on the left and the right.
This effectively, represents a person exclusion zone of 2×2 which is four squared metres.
Whereas if you had to if you had to keep a distance of 2 squared metres from another person on all sides, i.e. two metres in front, two metres behind, two metres to left and right, either side. That box of four squared metres, suddenly dramatically expands to 16 squared metres.
In other words, to reduce the risk of infection by 1%, from extremely low to almost extremely low. You have to therefore, increase the potential chaos. Of what a one metre social distancing rule would already have had on society by a further 300%.
For almost all businesses, forms of transport, pavements, cycle paths and queues for banks, buses, supermarkets, school gates and the like. You know the story.
Logically to a lot of people that doesn’t seem to make sense. Although of course, one might argue that strategically it still does. In which case, let’s continue from that point.
All the above is contingent on any one of us being near someone who HAS Covid-19 and is still contagious. The likelihood of which would be far less delay than it was yesterday, which was far less delay than the day before and almost infinitely less that lets say four weeks ago.
The risk of infection is then contingent further on whether or not the infected or contagious person we are near sneezes or coughs at all, let alone in our direction.
There are of course, added risk to infection from nearby surfaces, common to more than one person, but this is the same, regardless of social distancing and is more to do with washing hands and keeping things fresh and clean.
And then there’s the incredulous for sum, most credulous for sum, stumbling block of logic in regards to how come the social distancing rule outdoors is exactly the same as it is for indoors?
When even the most diametrically opposed schools of thinking otherwise, unanimously agree that the risk of contracting Covid-19 indoors, vastly outweighs the risk of contracting it outdoors.
Here for example in our building, where we are right now, work stations that are closer than two metres to the next, which is almost precisely three from every four, have been closed down, until further notice. Which represents guess what?
The difference between the infected of having to safeguard four square metres of personal space, as to opposed to sixteen square metres of personal space.
Simply put. Is it illogical at best, but generally delusional, to suggest that the most effective social distance outside is precisely as it is inside?
It must be surely, some might say, either much greater than 2 metres outside in relation to inside. Or much less than 2 metres inside in relation to outside.
When you begin to analyse this alone, does it not become clear, some might ask, that at least two separate strategies. At LEAST TWO separate strategies, have to be required for starters to even begin to convince people whose livelihoods dependent on all of the above. That various modellers have begun to be able to see the woods from the trees which is entirely understandable up to a point. But does it mean, various decisions can’t be changed and shouldn’t be changed now. Before it is too late?
I regret, typing it all out now. It was longer than I thought! If nothing else, I love the point about social distancing indoors and outdoors and how it doesn’t reduce much of the risk of catching Covid-19.
Today, my un-wellness from yesterday, started to disappear as the morning progressed
It’s been a day of admin. Setting up next weeks Chi Gong login. Doing my accounts, etc…
At 11am I took part in my first Zoom Focus Group – which was part of the office space I use (The Melting Pot) starting to make plans on opening up the physical space in a couple of months and exploring members needs, etc…
Then some more admin, before heading out with Honey for our walk to Arthur’s Seat.
After the walk, I helped my friend Gandolf with some Zoom questions for his annual Birthday meet-up – which is usually in The Meadows, but this year is on Zoom. He told me it has been in The Meadows for the last 15 years!
Then I watched Tom Brace Big Fat Isolation Quiz, before starting this blog!
I am trying Kefir tonight rather than Kombucha!
Whilst I walked with Honey the Dog this afternoon on Arthur’s Seat, I suddenly noticed that the bright yellowness of the gorse has faded massively. How did I miss that from happening, I come here everyday! See photos below and scattered through this blog already.
As I walked over a hill, I suddenly noticed a few bushes which were bright yellow, I got excited, that there was still some bright yellow gorse. But when I approached closer, it wasn’t gorse.
I then found myself noticing lots of different plants. It’s weird, as I pretty much walk the same area most days. But today I noticed it all and took some great photos.
A few contributions in today’s Readers Corner.
Kate text me last night after reading my blog, saying:
“What a busy day you had!
That was a really uplifting read Jim – I love it. It was great to have a chat about vulnerability earlier and then read more about it in your blog”.
Yes – this theme seems to be running for a few days, as I chat about it to others and think more about it.
Lisa commented at the bottom of yesterday’s blog. She said:
“I never realised that Guernsey had a different healthcare system to us.
Their dealing with the virus sounds very similar to how Singapore and South Korea dealt with it.
I know South Korea had an app, and anyone who was diagnosed had daily calls to check the status of symptoms and see how people were and if they needed anything.
I love the sock subscription idea, my son got me a natural beauty care subscription that I receive every month form Lovelula and during lockdown especially, it’s been really nice receiving them so I’m also going to continue with the subscription.
I’m loving seeing Anna’s paintings, they’re very good. I wish I could paint or draw but I think a toddler would make a better job than me.
I love doing a bit of gardening, it’s good for the mind I think and nice to look back on when it’s finished.
It must have been a nice change for you.
Sorry to hear you’re feeling out of sorts, I hope you’re better soon. x”
Lisa thanks for all your thoughts, it’s great to have you back in Readers Corner after a small break 🙂
Pat put a Facebook comment on yesterday’s blog, talking about the last couple of days. He said:
“Another Great Read…Like The Choice Of Songs Especially Video Killed The Radio Star…I Love That Song Reminds Me Of Simpler Times In My Life…Stay Safe and Stay Well My Friend….☘️☘️☘️☘️”
Thanks Pat. Glad you enjoyed the music choices.
You can listen to the whole show from here – https://www.mixcloud.com/offthechartradio/off-the-chart-radio-pop-up-sam-lupton-030620/
You can find my ‘Listeners Corner’ at 1:08 on the counter
This morning when walking Honey the Dog, I was thinking about the ‘universal connection’ concept that I mentioned in yesterday’s blog.
After spending 3 weeks in the Outer Hebrides and west coast of Scotland last July, I got used to saying “hello” to everyone I past walking on the road, if I knew them or not. When I returned to Edinburgh, I decided to continue this practice – whether they said hello or not. Doing this everywhere – on the street, Arthur’s Seat. where ever!
I have found that 90% of folk, just blank me, when I said “hello” or “morning” when I pass them. Unless, they also have a dog with them and then there is this kind of “mutual connection” and they will return the response.
But within lock-down, this has massively increased. Although, not at the start. I think people were worried they could pass the virus on if they replied – or something like that. But probably from week 5 onward (when people started to re-appear) about 70% of people respond back. This is still the same today, even just a grunt or a nod, but some kind of friendly acknowledgement.
When I got home from my walk, Helen (from Sweden) messaged me about this theme and we continued chatting about it on messenger, on and off for most of the day!
We pretty much carried on chatting about what I had started thinking about. She described it as a ‘universal experience’ with lock-down. It feels like we are having a global human experience. We are all able to relate to each other on a large scale. We are all able to empathise with each other, because we are all experiencing the same relatable experience.
She doesn’t hold out much hope that it will continue after lock-down. She thinks life, stress and everything will get in the way and we will lose that universal connection / experience / empathy.
I sadly agree.
People who lived in London, during the London underground Bombings in 2005, described that everyone started talking to each other on the tube/underground, on the street, etc…the crisis and the horror and the pain. The universal connection / experience / empathy – brought everyone together. It was a relatable experience for everyone, as most people in London use or have used the underground.
They probably thought “that could have been me on that underground train”. And/or may have known someone who got caught up in it. But within a very short while, everyone was back to being in their own world’s, not talking to anyone else or interacting.
I do think there is a difference between living in a city and rural setting. Folk in cities seem more closed off to others, well apart from Glasgow. Glaswegians will chat to anyone – in a shop, on the train, anywhere and everywhere. I’ve never seen that in any other city. Helen and I wondered, why this is – maybe it’s because everyone in Glasgow is drunk 😉
As I continue to think about all this and wonder about it – I keep getting glimpses – of it having something to do with connecting to our “humanness” on a kind of “global level”. I am not quite sure what I mean by that.
Something to do with a shift in consciousness on a metaphysical or spiritual sense?
I need to go and think and read about that some more!
It Made Me Laugh
Thought I would create this new section, of things that I have seen today that made me laugh. If you see anything that you want to share, please do send to me.
Although, this could start to get confusing – whether it is for ‘Readers Corner’ or ‘It Made Me Laugh’.
Today, I saw in the Sun newspaper, this article about how a man in Glasgow desperate to get a McDonalds, but didn’t own a car – McDonald’s restaurants are only open as a drive-thru.
So he got in the drive-thru queue in a toy car! It worked and he got served and got his Big Mac!
You can read the full article here – https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/5668882/glasgow-mcdonalds-queues-served/
It follows when yesterday a man in Stockton-on-Tees queued at a McDonalds drive-thru in a carboard car – https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/5664424/mcdonalds-customer-cardboard-box-car/
As I come to the end of today’s blog. It is late, 1.30am! Thank goodness tomorrow is Saturday, my Day of Rest.
I had nearly finished the blog, but then I found Chris Evans words online, so spent over an hour typing it out!
The weather has been kind of warm, I think. When I was out, I had two jumpers on and my hooded-top and felt warm when in the sun. So not sure if it was warm, because I had more clothes on. From late afternoon and evening it has been raining – and is cold.
I am looking forward to the weekend, when I can relax a bit.
Hope you’ve all had a good week.